SPG
upcomingSIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC
Expected Move Analysis
$204.20
±5.7%
±$11.72
80
High
1.15
Bearish bias
Analysis & Commentary
SIMON PROPERTY GROUP INC (SPG) reports earnings Monday . Consensus EPS estimate is $2.97.
The expected move of ±5.7% translates to roughly ±$11.75 from the current price of $204.72. This defines the range the market is pricing in for the post-earnings reaction.
IV Rank is elevated at 80, indicating options premiums are pricing in a larger-than-usual move. This creates an edge for premium sellers — the IV crush after the event can be significant.
A short strangle with strikes beyond the ±5.7% expected move could capture the IV crush. This is a higher-risk play — consider defined-risk alternatives or strict position sizing.
Enter the position 1-2 days before earnings to capture the final IV ramp. Plan to close the morning after the report once IV collapses — don't hold hoping for further decay.

