AMAT

APPLIED MATERIALS INC (AMAT) reports earnings Thursday after the close. Consensus EPS estimate is $2.66.

The expected move of ±12.3% translates to roughly ±$52.41 from the current price of $426.13. This defines the range the market is pricing in for the post-earnings reaction.

IV Rank is elevated at 90, indicating options premiums are pricing in a larger-than-usual move. This creates an edge for premium sellers — the IV crush after the event can be significant.

With elevated IV, an iron condor centered around the current price could capture premium decay while defining risk. Set short strikes at or beyond the expected move of ±12.3% for a higher probability of profit.

Enter the position 1-2 days before earnings to capture the final IV ramp. Plan to close the morning after the report once IV collapses — don't hold hoping for further decay.

Tech earnings often see outsized moves driven by guidance and forward metrics like bookings, cloud growth, or AI-related spending.